"Fearful duel" between Bruno Retailleau and Édouard Philippe to come for the 2027 presidential election

In the race for the Élysée Palace, which is being played out on both sides of the aisle, four names keep cropping up: Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Gabriel Attal, and Gérald Darmanin. But this quartet is increasingly taking on the air of a duel between the Horizons mayor of Le Havre and the Minister of the Interior, according to an Ipsos-Cesi engineering school poll for La Tribune Dimanche published this Saturday, May 24.

For 42% of French people surveyed, the former head of government would be the best president of the Republic among these four figures if he were elected in 2027. "Without doing much and without being visible, Édouard Philippe also has his image base, particularly in terms of presidential stature, where he is ahead of the Minister of the Interior," Brice Teinturier, deputy managing director of Ipsos, explained to the weekly magazine.

At the same time, nearly a third of those surveyed (32%) believe that Bruno Retailleau would be best placed to wield power if he wins the presidential election. Gabriel Attal, leader of the Renaissance MPs and former Prime Minister, and Gérald Darmanin, Minister of Justice, are far behind on this point, with 18% and 8% respectively.

Buoyed by his sweeping victory over Laurent Wauquiez last weekend to take the helm of LR, Bruno Retailleau has confirmed his breakthrough in public opinion. This was already evident in the Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey for Le Figaro published Thursday. It saw him overtake Édouard Philippe in terms of popularity for the first time, with 51% positive opinions compared to 48% for the mayor of Le Havre.

Of the eleven personality traits tested by Ipsos, the resident of Place Beauvau beat his three competitors in eight categories. He was notably judged "competent" by 53% of those surveyed and "a man of conviction" by 63% of those questioned, compared to 52% and 54% for Édouard Philippe. The latter, however, was judged to have the most stature of a President of the Republic (46% compared to 42% for Bruno Retailleau and 29% for Gérald Darmanin and Gabriel Attal).

Currently, Édouard Philippe "has the upper hand over Bruno Retailleau in terms of presidential stature. In reality, it's a formidable duel between these two leaders," summarizes Brice Teinturier. "Our poll shows that Édouard Philippe should be wary of an Interior Minister who gives the impression of being truly in action, with a desire to change things and a good understanding of what the French people are going through."

Édouard Philippe, like Bruno Retailleau, also has the advantage of uniting the majority of their political factions behind their name. 86% of central bloc supporters believe that the former head of government has presidential stature, and 87% believe that he "really wants to change things." Bruno Retailleau recorded scores of 79% and 93% among LR supporters on these two points.